Economic Conditions & Forecasts in the Sacramento Region

“The stock market has doubled in the last five years, corporate profits are strong, historically low interest rates have helped the bond market and inflation is benign.” Reported Glenn Kenes, managing director of investments for Barber and Kenes, Wells
Fargo Advisors.

“While it may not feel like it with the aftermath of the dreaded  fiscal cliff and all, the key economic indicators are all positive and it looks as though we are poised for continued growth.” Kene continued.

Glenn Kenes was one of the speakers at the economic forum sponsored by  Teri Tate Wilson of Old Republic Title, Barber & Kenes, Mike Wilson CPA, Monti Reynolds, Esq and Poly Comp.  The forum was  held at Auburns Holiday Inn.

Stephen Bender, President andCEO of Warren G Bender Insurance reported that insurance premiums for homeowners should remain stable for the next 24 months.

According to Mr Bender insurance companies are flush with cash.

Mr Bender expects increases in premiums for commercial strip centers of 4-5% and increases for employers  in workman’s comp premiums.

“Insurers are becoming concerned with the effects of global climate change. Especially with increased flooding worldwide.”Mr Bender said. “TheSacramentolevy system where we live is the 2nd worst levy system in the nation. As a result,  I expect  flood insurance to become mandatory in some regions.” He continued.

Tony Toohey, managing partner of Magnussen’s Auburn Toyota dealership also a guest speaker, said that car sales were up 20% from 2011-2012.

That’s great news since car sales were down by 50% from 2007 to 2009.  Mr Toohey projects an 8% increase in 2013.

Jeff Birkholtz of Umpqua bank explained that multi family is the current “darling” in the banking industry.

REO’s or bank owned single family home sales once made up approximately 41% of the market. That number is now down to 13.8% compared toCalifornia’s rate of 18.7%. Substantial progress has been made since the worst of the down turn.

Placer county home prices are up 12.3% over last year which is on par with the states 12.4%.

Zip 95603 home trends have tracked closely to the county over all. The housing market in 95603, however, did bottom three months ahead of the county overall. Prices in the Zip are down 48.4% from the peak, slightly further than the county, yet tracking very close with state total declines. The recovery at the 95603 Zip has lagged the county and the state with gains over the last year of 7.6%.

Over the next year home prices inPlacerCountyshould continue to rise at a moderate pace. Total gains are expected to be 3.5%. More significant gains are expected over a two year period, where relatively low rates of discounted distressed properties should support a sustained improvement.

Placer Counties office vacancy rate is at 23%.  Industrial space is stable. Placer counties Unemployment is at 9.8% whileAuburnis at 7.8%. The national average is 8.1%.

Keynote speaker Ryan Sharp, director of strategic economic research reported positive job growth in the private sector. The primary growth being in trade, transportation and utilities, health and professional and business services. Government has shrunk by 3200 jobs and will continue to decline into 2013.

The region is in the running as a place to relocate  from both national and international companies. 20 % of those interested are from theSan Francisco BayArea.

Auburn city Council woman Bridgett Powers shared that 10 new businesses have recently moved to theAuburnAirportIndustrial Park, one with 40 employees.

Mr Sharp expects us to see job growth of 1.6 % which is equivalent to 14,000 new jobs in 2013. That’s the best job growth that we have seen in 6 years! On -line job postings are at pre recession levels. He expects unemployment to drop to 9.4%.

Bring out your shades, the  Placer county economic forecast is bright!

Share Button

Comments are disabled for this post